Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.99(+0.5%), copper $3.13(-0.5%), lead $1.12(+0.8%), molybdenum $7.14(+0.0%); nickel $5.77(+1.0%); zinc $1.46(-1.2%);
Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.98 (-1.0%), copper $3.10 (-2.2%), lead $1.10 (-2.4%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $5.25 (-1.4%); zinc $1.44 (-1.6%);Precious (/oz): gold $1,274 (+0.5%), silver $16.87 (+0.5%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $618 (-0.9%), SHFE Rebar $544 (-1.4%), MB Scrap Index $301 (+1.9%);Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $60 (-2.3%), coking coal (/mt) $178 (+0.3%), freight (BCI)3,220 (+1.2%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $60.44 (+1.9%), WTI (/bbl) $53.90 (+2.4%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $2.75 (-4.8%), thermal coal (/t) $97 (+0.4%).
Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.96 (-0.8%), copper $3.14 (+1.2%), lead $1.09 (-0.1%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $5.56 (+1.8%); zinc $1.45 (+0.6%);Precious (/oz): gold $1,332 (+0.6%), silver $17.94 (+1.2%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $663 (+5.5%), SHFE Rebar $627 (+3.1%), MB Scrap Index $347 (+0.0%);Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $78 (-1.3%), coking coal (/mt) $210 (+0.1%), freight (BCI)2,243 (-0.9%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $52.34 (-0.8%), WTI (/bbl) $47.29 (+0.0%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $3.07 (+0.0%), thermal coal (/t) $96 (+0.4%).
Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.95 (+0.4%), copper $3.08 (-0.3%), lead $1.14(+0.2%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $5.49 (-1.5%); zinc $1.46 (+1.4%);Precious (/oz): gold $1,275 (-0.8%), silver $16.88 (-0.7%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $621 (+0.4%), SHFE Rebar $568 (-0.4%), MB Scrap Index $296 (+0.0%);Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $63 (+0.4%), coking coal (/mt) $188 (+3.9%), freight (BCI)3,360 (+0.3%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $63.52 (-0.6%), WTI (/bbl) $56.74 (-0.8%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $3.21 (+0.4%), thermal coal (/t) $98 (-0.1%).
Precious (/oz): gold $1,270(-0.5%), silver $16.84(-1.6%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $616(-0.3%), SHFE Rebar $554(+0.1%), MB Scrap Index $302(+0.0%);
US Commerce Department issues preliminary finding that China dumpedaluminum foil in the US market and imposes duties ranging from 97-162%(preliminary anti-subsidy duties of 17-81% imposed in Aug). In 2016, importsof aluminum foil from China were valued at $389m. Final determination due on2/23/18. US foil producers had filed petitions with the government accusingChina of dumping the product. China was “strongly dissatisfied” with thedecision and urged US to correct its pricing methods. (Reuters)Iron ore declines to $60/t (-2.3% DoD) as ongoing steel output cuts in China hitmill demand, with inventory days almost doubling. However, strong marginsand mandated output cuts led mills toward higher-grade ore use. FortescueMetals increased its discount for low-grade ore to 25.5% from 23%. Consensusremains mixed on whether strong margins would underpin ore price. S&Pexpects 62% Fe price for 4Q to average $64.1/t (DBe $55/t). (SBB, DB)India’s festive gold demand lower than usual this year, per MNC Bullion, awholesaler. Physical gold market remained quiet last week as demand cooledoff after major festivals. Gold price reached a 2-month low in India last weekand premiums rose as traders were looking to cover for purchases made athigher rates. Jewelers will be looking to replenish inventory, but will do soslowly as price is falling. In China, there has been some gold buying butinvestors are more interested in stocks. (Reuters)US Oil & Gas rig count slips by 4 WoW to 909 (+352 YoY). Oil-directed rigsrose by 1 to 737 (+296), while gas-directed rigs fell by 5 to 172 (+58 YoY).
China’s Caixin PMI rose to six-month high of 51.6 in August (+0.5 MoM).
China’s “2+26” policy to tackle pollution in 26 cities will reduce steel demandmore than it cuts production, per WoodMac. Severe restrictions ondownstream projects in major provinces will reduce demand by 9.6mt in 4Q17,impacting steel prices as well. Output restrictions in the 26 cities are expectedto be offset by production surges in the unregulated areas (South and EastChina and areas away from Beijing), shrinking supply shortage to 4mt in 4Q17(vs. demand reduction of 10mt). (Wood Mackenzie)Global nickel deficit expected to shrink to 53kt in 2018 (vs. 98kt in 2017) due toa recovery in Chinese production. Global consumption to rise 5.5% YoY to2.15mt in 2017, while output will rise 3% YoY to 2.05mt. Increased output inIndonesia (more than doubled in 2017) to offset declining Chinese output (-2%YoY). Battery sector to account for 9% of global nickel usage in 2025 (vs.
Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $60(+0.2%), coking coal (/mt) $180(+1.4%), freight (BCI)3,036(-0.8%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $62.07(+2.4%), WTI (/bbl) $55.64(+2.0%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $2.98(+1.7%), thermal coal (/t) $99(-1.2%).
Canadian count fell by 11 WoW to 191 (+38 YoY). (SBB)ArcelorMittal to increase production capacity at its Asturias Aviles sheet mill innorthern Spain. Aviles is an integrated plant with crude steel capacity of4.7mtpa and produces high-quality steel grades for the automotive and tinplateindustries as well as for heavy plate production. Company plans to convert itsslab caster which will increase capacity to 2.7mtpa from 1.9mtpa. Ramp upcomes as company notes increasing demand for higher quality in the specialsteel market. (SBB)Commercial Metals acquires substantially all the assets of MMFX TechnologiesCorporation (MMFX). Transaction terms were not disclosed. MMFX markets,sells, and licenses the production of proprietary specialty steel products. Itoperates out of California, and sells its products throughout NA. (Company)
Production rose to meet new order growth, while finished goods inventory fellfor the third consecutive month. Input costs (such as steel) increased to eightmonthhigh, but factories were successfully able to pass on incremental costs.
current 2.6%). Nickel consumption in Chinese battery sector to reach 49kt in2017, which includes 11kt for EV power cells. Usage of nickel in Chinese EVpower cells to grow to 45kt by 2020 and 150kt by 2025. (Antaike)Iron ore price rises to $62.7/t (+2% WoW) on consistent demand from East andSouth Chinese steel mills. Mills in Northern China were procuring less amidsintering and steel output cuts, whereas Southern China mills continued tochase productivity as they were unaffected by environmental limitations.
China’s Shaanxi province releases its winter air pollution control measures andorders local mills to reduce blast furnace utilization rates to 50%. The releasedid not specify the names and capacity of the targeted mills, nor the exactduration of the cut. Shaanxi’s Environmental Protection Department has saidthe output cuts would be implemented during Nov 1- Mar 1next year. Shaanxihosts 3major mills, with a combined pig iron capacity of ~11mtpa, implying anoutput loss of 3.5mt from Nov 1to Mar 1. Shaanxi province was not includedin the original “2+26” cities plan proposed by China, but it has joined themovement as it forecasts worsening winter conditions. (SBB)
Commenting on the PMI, Caixin noted improving operating conditions formanufacturing but cautioned that quick rise in prices could weigh onprofitability of companies in the middle of the supply chain. (SBB)Investment in Mexico’s mining sector expected to increase in 2017 to $5bn(+33% YoY) after 4-years of declining. Expenditures peaked in 2012 at $8bn,but waned thereafter on low commodity prices and increased taxes on thesector in 2014. However, with the revival of copper (+23% YTD), gold (+15%)and silver (+11%) prices in 2017, spending is expected to pick up. A change intax rates could significantly boost investment, as Mexico is currently one of themost expensive countries to invest in. (Reuters)US construction spending slips to SAAR of $1.21tn in July (-0.6% MoM, +1.8%YoY). Private construction spend was at a SAAR of $946bn in July (-0.4%MoM), while public spend reached SAAR of $266bn (-1.4% MoM). During Jan-July 2017, construction put-in-place totaled $691bn (+4.7% YoY). (SBB)Seaborne alumina pricing increases to $345/t (+8% WoW), likely driven by theChina’s Ministry of Environmental Protection announcement that it will deploy102 inspection teams to ensure cuts mandated under the “2+26 cities” policyare enforced. Alumina price increases benefit Alcoa, but are impediments toCentury Aluminium. (Platts, DB)US Oil & Gas rig count rises by 3 WoW to 943 (+446 YoY). Oil-directed rigsremained unchanged at 759 (+352), while gas-directed rigs increased by 3 to183 (+95). Canadian count fell by 16 WoW to 201 (+64 YoY). (Baker Hughes)Acacia Mining (Barrick stake: 64%) to reduce operational activity andexpenditure at Bulyanhulu gold mine, Tanzania. Concentrate ban imposed on3/3 has resulted in build-up of $265m of gold concentrate inventory andsignificant cash outflows, which has made operations unsustainable. Annualproduction guidance for Acacia revised to 750-800koz (previously 850-900koz,DBe 604koz for sales). Capex cut to $160m (previously $190m,). Companyplans to reduce costs as negotiations continue and foresees positive cashgeneration in early 2018. (Company, DB)
However, demand is expected to decrease as Northern mills will cut output by50% from November 15 onwards. (SBB)US Oil & Gas rig count increases by 9 WoW to 907 (+339 YoY). Oil-directedrigs rose by 9 to 738 (+286), while gas-directed rigs remained flat WoW at 169(+54 YoY). Canadian count increased by 11 to 203 (+27). (Baker Hughes)Freeport-McMoRan closes main supply route to its Grasberg copper and goldmine, Indonesia after shooting incident. Armed rebels have occupied 5 villagesnearby and blocked movement for ~1,000 villagers. Around 200 police andmilitary personnel have been deployed to secure the area by force, ifnecessary. (Mining.com)Nucor has stopped production at its Louisiana DRI facility (capacity: 2.5mt/yr)after an equipment failure. This is the fourth outage at the facility in 2017. Thelongest and most recent one took place from July 26 to September 8 asnecessary repairs were needed to be made to the material handling system.
Iron ore price rises 95c WoW to $60/t (-40c DoD). Buyers returned as pricecorrected, but participants were convinced that any uptick in price could notbe sustained as output cuts continued to dampen demand. The seaborne ironore lump market premium continued to decline on rising stockpiles. (Platts)
There is no estimate as to when the current outage will end. (SBB)
Argentina’s largest aluminum producer, Aluar Aluminio Argentino, is seekingnew markets due to US probe into aluminum imports on grounds of nationalsecurity. It ships an average of 170ktpa into US (~2.6% of total imports). USCommerce Department had announced in April that it was probing imports ofaluminum from China and elsewhere. However, the company plans to exportthe same amount next year and does not believe any tariffs will beimplemented due to the price effects on raw materials used by US auto andconstruction industries. (Reuters)
Demand for physical gold in Asia is expected to increase in coming weeks,mainly due to the beginning of the peak wedding season in India. Dealers inIndia were charging a premium of $3/oz over official domestic prices. Goldimports fell in October, as the government tightened norms and restricted dutyfree imports for domestic sale. (Mining.com)
US Oil & Gas rig count declined by 11WoW to 898(+329YoY) for weekending 11/3. Oil-directed rigs fell 8to 729(+279) and gas-directed rigs slippedby 3to 169(+52). Canadian count was up 1to 192(+38). (Baker Hughes)Nucor announces $40/st price increase on all new orders for carbon, alloy andheat-treated plate. Market participants believed a price increase would becoming soon as price fell $30/st in October, intensifying the price erosion thatoccurred for most of 2017. This is the first plate price increase since anunsuccessful attempt to raise prices in mid-August. (SBB)