HK: 16tenders for URA’s Reclamation Street project, at est. HK$1.23-1.35bn
In addition, on 6Oct, Evergrande announced that the Company had grantedshare options to 7,994senior and mid-level management personnel (~8% oftotal number employees), which will enable them to subscribe for anaggregate of 743,570,000(~5.7% of issued capital) new shares. The exerciseprice is HK$30.2and the share options will be exercisable in the next 10yearsin 5tranches. This incentive plan should help company retain talent in thiscompetitive market and continue its strong growth momentum.
Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) rose 1.16% w-w to a record of 167.51, duringthe week of 8-14 January 2018, according to Centaline. The w-w growth isalso the fastest in last ten weeks. Meanwhile, according to the newly releasedstudy by Demographia, Hong Kong remained the least affordable housingmarket globally in 2017, with the ratio of median home price (HK$6.19m) tohousehold income (HK$319k) at 19.4x, up from 18.1x in
Due to a relatively high base, property sales dropped in Oct, with volume down6.0% yoy (vs. -1.5% in Sep, YTD +8.2%) to 142mn sqm and value falling 1.7%yoy (vs. +1.6% in Sep, YTD +12.6%) to RMB1.1tn. However, if we compare theOct. sales with those of prior years, they are actually pretty strong(RMB804bn/721bn and 120k/115k sqm in 2015/2013). We expect overallproperty sales growth to remain weak for the rest of the year, but the sales oflisted developers will continue to outperform (our monitored 25listeddevelopers’ Oct sales were up 33% in aggregate and 53% in median). Webelieve those listed developers will continue to outperform and reach 40% yoysales growth for 2017F.
CN: Six developers’ sales in November remain strong
For the week of 30October – 5November 2017, the 25cities tracked bySoufun reported total sales volume of 3.5m sqm, down 5% wow. The year-onyeardecline further narrowed to 11% (16-30% in the previous three weeks).For the last four weeks, sales volume was up 14% 4w-4w and down 20% yoyto 13.8m sqm. YTD, total sales volume was down 23% yoy, which is stablecompared with -23% in the previous week. (Soufun, Deutsche Bank)
Decline in sales has been mitigating in T1 with -8% w-w or -36% y-y vs. -46%YTD y-y. Yet, slowdown in T3 cities expanded from -6% YTD y-y to -13% w-w.
We expect sales volume to moderate further in 4Q17, due to strict policytightening and a high base. Unlike in 1H17, we expect more divergence indevelopers’ sales growth, due to different strategies and execution. Wesuggest investors accumulate developers with a strong execution record orabundant saleable resources, including Vanke, Country Garden, Longfor, KWG,Future Land and Aoyuan. We value stocks using NAV for existing projects. Keyrisks are further credit/policy tightening.
CN: RMB6.0bn CMBS product for CM Shekou’s rental apartments approved
Weekly sales decline continues to narrow for the third consecutive weeks
St. Barths, Ma On Shan is set to launch another batch of 43 units, with ASP inthe range of HK$17,541-22,804 psf after discounts, up 2-4%. The last round of108 units was sold out in one day on 20 January 2018. (HKET).
Weaker sales growth due to high base; listed developer outperformed
CM Shekou (001979.SZ) announced the Shenzhen Stock Exchange hasapproved the issuance of CMBS for its rental apartments with a total issuancesize of RMB6.0bn. The size of the first tranche will be limited at RMB2.0bnwith a term of 18years. Currently, the developer has 16k rental apartmentunits with a planned GFA of 600k sqm. (Company, Guandian)
On 6Nov, Evergrande (Hold; HK$29.2) announced it has introduced a thirdround strategic investor for capital increase to its subsidiary – Hengda RealEstate with total capital of RMB60bn (six investors including ShandongHighway & Suning at RMB20bn each). This is higher than RMB30-50bn rangeguided during interim results briefing. Upon completion, total capital increasein Hengda should amount to RMB130bn, equivalent to 36.54% of the enlargedcapital. The third round capital increase is based on a pre-capital increaseconsideration of RMB365.19bn. We believe the capital increase couldsignificantly help deleveraging further. Moreover, the company alsoguarantees investors that its net profit excluding non-recurrent gains for 2018F/19F /20F will be over RMB50/55/60bn respectively. (vs previous terms for2017F/ 2018F /2019F at RMB24.3/30.8/33.7bn). With the largest landbank of276mn sqm (among all developers as of 1H17), and strong sales momentum of>CNY500bn in 2017F (CNY56.3bn sales in October with YTD of CNY422bn),CNY650bn in 2018F, we believe the company should be able to achieve theguided earnings over the next three years (aggregate of RMB165bn). For 2017,the company should be able to beat its full-year profit guidance of RMB24.3bn,considering its strong 1H results amid margin expansion.
HK: House prices measured by CCL up 1.16% w-w to a new high.
10M17REI growth narrowed to 7.8% yoy with new starts declining in October
For the week of 27November to 3December, the 25cities tracked by Soufunreported total sales volume of 3.9m sqm, up another 6% wow. Year-on-yearrecorded a 2% increase. For the last four weeks, sales volume was up 1% 4w-4w / flattish yoy to 14.0m sqm. For the YTD, total sales volume was down 22%yoy, the same as last week. The 4w yoy change stopped dropping for the firsttime since late March, which showed sequential improving trends, especiallyin T1(-18% 4w yoy vs. -38% YTD) and T2(+9% 4w yoy vs -26% YTD). Basedon the weekly data, we think it is likely we will see a better November vs.October for T1/2cities. (Soufun, Deutsche Bank)
Introducing the 3rd-round strategic investor with RMB60bn capital increase
CN: Jinmao management further increases stakes.
Recommendations and risks
HK: Cullinan West II to launch sales of 119units, with 3% price increase
(Soufun, Deutsche Bank).
Strong land sales value YTD, but still under-supplied
HK: Mortgage benchmark 1-month HIBOR stays at record for last two days
For the third week in 2018, the 25 cities tracked by Soufun reported a totalsales volume of 3.0m sqm, down 11% w-w and y-y. For the last four weeks,sales volume was down 9% 4w-4w / down 4% y-y to 14.0m sqm. YTD, totalsales volume was down 12% y-y, narrowing from the 20% decline in
YTD REI for 10M17was up 7.8% yoy (vs. 8.1% in 9M17) and YTD residentialREI was up 9.9% yoy (vs. 10.4% in 9M17). We attribute this to: 1) land salesvalue growth slowing to 29.3% in Oct (vs. 46.3% in 9M17), despite volumegrowing at 18.3% yoy in Oct (vs. 12% in 9M17), and 2) a decline in new startsof -4.3% yoy in Oct (vs.6.8% in 9M17). As YTD land sales value remained high,inventory is still low, but with tighter credit in 4Q, we continue to expect 5%new starts and high single-digit REI growth for 2017.
1-month HIBOR was reported at 1.03924%, which has stayed above 1% fortwo consecutive trading days, according to the Hong Kong Association ofBanks. It crossed above 1% on 29Nov, for the first time since Dec-2008. (HKEJ)
CN: Privatization of GLP completed.
Land area sold increased 18.3% yoy in Oct. (YTD of 12.9% vs. 12.2% in 9M17)and land value sold increased 29.3% yoy (YTD of 43.3% vs. 46.3% in 9M17).The 190mn sqm land sales YTD is stronger than the equivalent period in 2016,but still way below the historical peak of 337mn sqm in 10M11and 328mnsqm in 10M10. This, coupled with slower growth on new starts (+5.6% yoy in10M17), means we believe inventory is unlikely to pick up much in the shortterm (currently at 9.5/8/12months in T1/2/3cities based on our estimates).
The Urban Renewal Authority received 16tenders for the ReclamationStreet/Shantung Street project in Mong Kok, from, amongst others, CK Asset(1113.HK), HKRI (480.HK), Emperor (163.HK), Chinachem, and Vanke(2202.HK). The valuation of the residential development is estimated to beHK$1.23-1.35bn (or at an ASP of HK$11k-12k on a GFA of 112.2k sf). (HKET)
In November 2017, 476 domestic unit occupation permits were issued, thelowest in nine months, according to the Buildings Department. Nonetheless,the YTD completion of 14,611 units (+21.1% y-y) has already exceeded the14,594 units in full-year 2016. (HKET)
Cullinan West II will launch another batch of 119units, with a price rise of ~3%compared to the prior batch. Sales can start by the end of this week. (HKET)
Vanke (2202.HK) announced the completion of Global Logistics Properties, andGLP delisted from the Singapore Exchange on 22 January. After thecompletion of the privatization, Vanke owns about 21.4% of GLP and willbecome the largest shareholder of GLP. (Company).
CN: Weekly sales showing sequential improvement
HK: YTD 11M2017 reports completion of 14,611 units, up 21.1% y-y.
For the major listed developers we tracked, six have reported their Novembersales, namely Aoyuan (3883.HK), Evergrande (3333.HK), Future Land(1030.HK), R&F (2777.HK), Sunac (1981.HK) and Vanke (2202.HK). The yoychanges ranged from 18-206% for November with YTD sales up 25-142%. Fourof the six developers’ sales showed a mom increase in sales value and most ofthem have fulfilled their annual sales targets, except R&F (92%) and Vanke(without target). (Company, Deutsche Bank)
HK: St. Barths to launch another 43 units, with ASP up 2-4%.
Jinmao (0817.HK) announced the second instance of collective share purchaseby executive directors and management by their self-owned funds since 15January 2018. The number of shares purchased by two share acquisitionstotaled 71.588m, at an average price of HKD3.8415 per share. (HKEx).
CN: Weekly sales down 11% w-w, slowdown in T1 cities mitigated.
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